1730 UTC, September 7th 2008 Tropical Analysis
Hurricane Ike ripped through the Turks and Caicos islands overnight, and is moving over Grand Inagua island at the moment as it continues west towards Cuba. Ike's maximum sustained winds are 135 mph, making it a very dangerous category 4 hurricane. It is possible that Ike will strengthen more today as it crosses the warm waters between Grand Inagua and Cuba, as it will be over those waters for at least another 6+ hours. It is probable that Ike will reach the coastline of Cuba late this evening into tonight, and conditions are already going downhill in Cuba. Alot of uncertainty comes into the forecast as Ike reaches Cuba though, as was discussed yesterday. The ridge that has been steering Ike is pushing off to the east and allowing Ike to slowly change course. Yesterday Ike's heading slowly changed from WSW to W, and today it should change from W to WNW. The big question is where does this occur, and there are multiple possibilities. The first possibility, and the one forecasted by the National Hurricane Center, is that Ike will turn over Cuba and travel up the spine of the island, losing alot of strength. The second scenario is that Ike will cross Cuba into the Caribbean as it heads west, only briefly weakening before restrengthening over the warm waters of the Caribbean. The third scenario is that Ike will turn WNW before or as it is reaching the Cuban coastline, allowing it to travel along or north of the coast, and maintain strength or strengthen over the warm waters of the Atlantic and Florida Straits. All three scenarios have an equal possibility of occurring, and we will just have to wait and see what happens. Ike will start to effect the Florida Keys Monday as it heads WNW, making its closest approach sometime Tuesday. The impact of Ike on the Keys is largely dependent on which scenario occurs as Ike turns. Scenarios one and two wouldn't be all that bad for the Keys with tropical storm force winds being the likely impact, while scenario three could end up bringing the full brunt of the storm to the Keys. South Florida will also likely experience some tropical storm conditions as Ike passes by, unless Ike takes the most southerly track possible. After Ike moves past Cuba and Florida, in a weakened state or not, it will traverse the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for Ike to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico, but the track of Ike is very uncertain at that point. Some models indicate that a trough will get a hold of Ike and steer the storm rapidly north, threatening the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Other models suggest that Ike will be more of a central to western Gulf of Mexico threat. Ike is many days from a Gulf of Mexico threat, and interests along the Gulf coast should just monitor the storm for now. Hurricane warnings are up for the southern and central Bahamas and eastern and central Cuba. Hurricane watches are up for the Florida Keys and Abacos island in the Bahamas, as well as a piece of western Cuba. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Cayman islands, in case of a more southerly track, and tropical storm warnings continue for now in northern Haiti. Interests in all of these regions need to monitor the storm and make the necessary preparations, based on the advice of local government and the National Hurricane Center. I will continue to update.
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Ike
2008 Hurricane Season Forecast
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